利率政策对房地产开发投资的影响.pdfVIP

摘 要 房地产业是国民经济的支柱产业，同时房地产业也因为与人民的生活、经 济的稳定、金融的安全密切相关而受到政府、社会和学者的关注。合理的、理 性的房地产业投资规模和速度是房地产市场有序、健康发展的基础和重要保证。 利率政策作为国家宏观调控政策的重要组成部分，在宏观调控中扮演了重要的 角色。因此，探讨利率政策对房地产开发投资的调控作用，既是对经济学理论 的检验，也是对我国宏观政策有效性的检验。 但是，房地产开发投资过热和房地产市场的高涨实质上已经不单纯是一个 产业的问题。自中国改革开发以来，中国经济已经从过去的农耕时代进入到工 业化时代，经济发展取得了很大的成果，分析房地产问题已经不能就房地产来 谈房地产，而应该结合中国经济的其他的方面来看，因为中国经济的各个环节 是环环相扣的。 因此，本文主要从住房消费需求和投资需求、中国经济增长方式以及国际 经验的示范效应等角度研究中国的房地产开发投资，从而得出中国房地产开发 投资过快有其现实的必然性。而实质上支撑这个必然性的就是房地产开发的较 高预期利润率。根据凯恩斯的投资理论，利率在调节投资的过程中，应该考虑 投资的预期收益率，而不是单单从利率考虑。因此，得出了在较高预期收益率 支撑下的中国房地产开发投资在面对国家的利率调控时并不会出现明显的下降 趋势的结论，并利用简单计量方法对此结论进行了检验。检验的结果也证明利 率调控政策并不能切实地解决房地产开发调控过快的问题。 关键词：房地产开发投资；利率政策；预期利润率 2 Abstract With the deepening of the reform of housing system and the accelerating of the urbanization process, the industry of real estate in China has been developing rapidly in recent years. However, all the people focus on the problems of the market of real estate. The investment of real estate is the basic of the market of real estate. The rapid growth rate of it has attracted much attention. In order to slow down the rate, many macroeconomics policies including the interest rates policy were used. So in this paper, the effect of interest rates policy to the investment of real estate is the object to be studied. With the reformation and the opening policy, the Chinese economic has developed rapidly. It is in the process of industrialization. The industry of real estate is different one and plays an important role in economic system. Therefore, it’s not a separated part and it should be related to many factors. In the paper, the characteristics of the industry of real estate are carefully analyzed. The analysis