考虑季节因素的不同医疗机构服务需求变化趋势及预测分析.pdfVIP

医学信息学杂志2025年第46卷第7期JOURNALOFMEDICALINFORMATICS2025,Vol.46,No.7

考虑季节因素的不同医疗机构服务需求

变化趋势及预测分析

朱秋月1李鑫2王晓虎杜涛1

完延安716000完延安716000)

（’延安大学经济与管理学院延安大学附属医院

[摘要]目的/意义分析我国不同医疗卫生机构服务需求，预测未来变化情况，为相关决策提供依据。

进行数据处理及预测。结果/结论我国医疗服务需求呈季节性波动上升趋势，医院服务需求趋稳，基层医疗

卫生机构服务需求持续上升。建议通过季节性资源优化配置、分级诊疗引导和信息化建设等优化就医格局。

[关键词]医疗服务；需求预测；季节性自回归移动平均模型；资源配置；分级诊疗

[中图分类号]R-058【文献标识码]】A[D01]10.3969/j.issn.1673-6036.2025.07.011

TrendAnalysisandForecastingofServiceDemandsinDifferentMedicalInstitutionswithSeasonalConsideration

ZHUQiuyue,LIXin’,WANGXiaohu,DUTao

SchoolofEconomicsandManagement,YananUnversity,Yanan716000,China;AfiliatedHospitalofYananUniversity,Yanan

716000,China

[Abstract]Purpose/SignificanceToanalyzetheservicedemandsofdfferentmedicalinstitutionsinChina,andtoforecastfuture

changes,soastoprovideabasisforrelevantdecisions.Method/ProcessDatafromtheofficialwebsiteoftheNationalHealthCommission

areselectedfromJanuary2011toNovember2023,andthedataareprocessedandpredictedusingseasonalauto-regressiveintegrated

movingaverage(SARIMA)model.Result/ConclusionThedemandformedicalservicesinChinashowsaseasonalfluctuatingupward

trend.Theservicedemandsofhospitalsisstabilizing,andtheservicedemandsofprimarymedicalandhealthinstitutionswillcontinueto

rise.Itissuggestedtooptimizethepatternofmedicaltreatmentthroughseasonalresourceoptimizationallocation,hierarchicaldiagnosis

andtreatmentguidance,andinformatizationconstruction,etc.

medicalservice;demandforecasting;seasonalauto-regressiveintegratedmovingaverage(SARIMA)model;resource

[Keywords]

allocation;hierarchicaldiagnosisandtreatment

[修回日期]2025-06-26

[作者简介]朱秋月，硕士研究生；通信作者：杜涛，博士，教授，硕士生导师。

[基金项目]国家