中国汽柴油市场需求发展趋势分析.pdfVIP

Vol.32,No.12国际石油经济

2024INTERNATIONALPETROLEUMECONOMICS

中国汽柴油市场需求发展趋势分析

韩冰，刘生瑶，齐超1

(1.中国石油天然气股份有限公司销售分公司；2.中国华油集团有限公司）

摘要：分析中国汽油需求的短、中、长期影响因素，预测2024年是汽油需求达峰后的第一年，汽油

需求相比上年下降1.8%；

为4.5%；汽油需求降幅短期内南方快于北方，长期看南方慢于北方。分析中国柴油需求的短、中、长期影

处于北方降幅快于南方的状况。建议市场主体对汽柴油市场分析做如下重点调整：1）将以往的“上行或平

稳周期”行业评价分析背景调整为“平稳周期适当下浮”；2）分区域分阶段按特点进行市场开发；3）加

大新能源、非油业务、数字化转型等维度的评价指标权重。

关键词：汽柴油市场；汽油需求；柴油需求；成品油替代；需求预测

中图分类号：F405；F407.22；F426.22

AnalysisofthedevelopmenttrendofChinasgasolineanddieselmarket

demand

HANBing,LIUShengyao°,QIChao

(1.PetroChinaMarketingCompany,2.ChinaHuayouGroupCorporation)

Abstract:Afteranalyzingtheshort-,medium-andlong-termfactorsaffectingChinasgasolinedemand,thepaper

predictsthat2024willbethefirstyearaftergasolinedemandpeaksandgasolinedemandwilldropby1.8%comparedwiththe

previousyear,therateofdeclinewillaccelerateduringthe15hFive-YearPlanperiodandtheactualdemandwilldropby27.8%

in2030comparedwiththatin2023withanaverageannualdeclineof4.5%,therateofdeclineingasolinedemandwillbefaster

inthesouththaninthenorthintheshorttermandslowerinthesouththaninthenorthinthelongterm.Afteranalyzingthose

factorsofChinasdieselfueldemand,itforecaststhatthedieselfueldemandwilldecreaseby5.9%in2024comparedwiththat

ofthepreviousyear;itwilldecreaseby27.2%in2030comparedwiththatof2023andthedemandfordieselfuelwillbeinthe

conditionthatthedecreaseinthenorthwillbefasterthanthatinthesouthinthelong-term.Itisrecommendedthatmarketplayers

makesuchfollowingkeyadjustmentstotheanalysisofthedieseloilmarketasadjustingthepreviousindustryevaluationand

analysisbackgroundofupward