IMF-高负债是否制约货币政策？来自通胀预期的证据（英）-2023.6-33页.docx

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IMF-高负债是否制约货币政策？来自通胀预期的证据（英）-2023.6-33页.docx

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IsHighDebtConstrainingMonetaryPolicy?

EvidencefromInflation

Expectations

WP/23/143

IMFWorkingPapersdescriberesearchin

progressbytheauthor(s)andarepublishedto

elicitcommentsandtoencouragedebate.

TheviewsexpressedinIMFWorkingPapersare

thoseoftheauthor(s)anddonotnecessarily

representtheviewsoftheIMF,itsExecutiveBoard,

orIMFmanagement.

2023

JUN

NAr

rARY

?2023InternationalMonetaryFund

WP/23/143

IMFWorkingPaper

MonetaryandCapitalMarketsandWesternHemisphereDepartments

IsHighDebtConstrainingMonetaryPolicy?EvidencefromInflationExpectations

PreparedbyLuisBrandao-Marques,MarcoCasiraghi,GastonGelos,OlamideHarrison,andGunes

Kamber*

AuthorizedfordistributionbyDavidHofman

June2023

IMFWorkingPapersdescriberesearchinprogressbytheauthor(s)andarepublishedtoelicit

commentsandtoencouragedebate.TheviewsexpressedinIMFWorkingPapersarethoseofthe

author(s)anddonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheIMF,itsExecutiveBoard,orIMFmanagement.

ABSTRACT:Thispaperexamineswhetherhighgovernmentdebtlevelsposeachallengetocontaining

inflation.Itdoessobyassessingtheimpactofgovernmentdebtsurprisesoninflationexpectationsin

advanced-andemergingmarketeconomies.Itfindsthatdebtsurprisesraiselong-terminflationexpectationsinemergingmarketeconomiesinapersistentway,butnotinadvancedeconomies.Theeffectsarestronger

wheninitialdebtlevelsarealreadyhigh,wheninflationlevelsareinitiallyhigh,andwhendebtdollarizationissignificant.Bycontrast,debtsurpriseshaveonlymodesteffectsineconomieswithinflationtargetingregimes.Increaseddebtlevelsmaycomplicatethefightagainstinflationinemergingmarketeconomieswithhighanddollarizeddebtlevels,andweakermonetarypolicyframeworks.

RECOMMENDEDCITATION:

JELClassificationNumbers:E31,E41,E52,E62

Keywords:

Inflationexpectations;monetary

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