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THE INTERNATIONAL FISHER EFFECT C. Simplified IFE equation: (if rf is relatively small) * 第三十页,共四十三页。 THE INTERNATIONAL FISHER EFFECT D. Implications of IFE 1. Currency with the lower interest rate expected to appreciate relative to one with a higher rate. * 第三十一页,共四十三页。 * * Multinational Financial Management Alan Shapiro7th Edition J.Wiley Sons Power Points by Joseph F. Greco, Ph.D. California State University, Fullerton * 第一页,共四十三页。 CHAPTER 4 PARITY CONDITIONS AND CURRENCY FORECASTING * 第二页,共四十三页。 CHAPTER OVERVIEW I. ARBITRAGE AND THE LAW OF ONE PRICE II. PURCHASING POWER PARITY III. THE FISHER EFFECT IV. THE INTERNATIONAL FISHER EFFECT V. INTEREST RATE PARITY THEORY VI. THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE FORWARD AND FUTURE SPOT RATE VII. CURRENCY FORECASTING * 第三页,共四十三页。 PART I. ARBITRAGE AND THE LAW OF ONE PRICE I. THE LAW OF ONE PRICE A. Law states: Identical goods sell for the same price worldwide. * 第四页,共四十三页。 ARBITRAGE AND THE LAW OF ONE PRICE B. Theoretical basis: If the price after exchange-rate adjustment were not equal, arbitrage in the goods worldwide ensures eventually it will. * 第五页,共四十三页。 ARBITRAGE AND THE LAW OF ONE PRICE C. Five Parity Conditions Result From These Arbitrage Activities 1. Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) 2. The Fisher Effect (FE) 3. The International Fisher Effect (IFE) 4. Interest Rate Parity (IRP) 5. Unbiased Forward Rate (UFR) * 第六页,共四十三页。 ARBITRAGE AND THE LAW OF ONE PRICE D. Five Parity Conditions Linked by 1. The adjustment of various rates and prices to inflation. * 第七页,共四十三页。 ARBITRAGE AND THE LAW OF ONE PRICE 2. The notion that money should have no effect on real variables (since they have been adjusted for price changes). * 第八页,共四十三页。 ARBITRAGE AND THE LAW OF ONE PRICE E. Inflation and home currency depreciation: 1. jointly determined by the growth of domestic money supply; 2. Relative to the growth of domestic m
有哪些信誉好的足球投注网站
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