托福阅读练习：科技产业是否身处泡沫之中.docxVIP

Word文档下载后（可任意编辑） 第 第 PAGE 1 页 共 NUMPAGES 1 页 托福阅读练习：科技产业是否身处泡沫之中 托福考试阅读练习：托福阅读练习：科技产业是否身处泡沫之中 托福考试精品课程辅导  IS THEtechnology industry in La La Land? There are alarming signs. House prices inSan Francisco have risen by 66% more than in New York over the past five years.Even at the height of the dotcom bubble in 2001, the gap was lower, at 58%.Shares of technology firms trade on their highest ratio to sales since the turnof the century. Four of the world’s most valuable firms are tech companies:Apple, Alphabet, Microsoft and Amazon. Snap, a tiddler with $400m of sales and$700m of cash losses in 2016, listed shares on March 2nd that gave it avaluation of over $20bn.  科技产业是否正处在虚幻之国?这不乏警示信号。过去五年旧金山房价的涨幅超出纽约66%。即使在互联网泡沫最 大的2001年，这一差距也只有58%。科技公司股票市销率已升至世纪之交以来的新高。全球市值最 大的四家公司均为科技公司：苹果、Alphabet、微软、亚马逊。在2016年销售额为四亿美元而现金损失达七亿美元的小公司Snap在3月2日上市，估值超过200亿美元。  Forcompanies and investors in any industry, it is hard to work out if you areliving in a bubble. To help, Schumpeter has created three sanity tests forglobal tech firms. These examine their cashflow, whether investorsdifferentiate between companies, and whether forecasts of their future earningssuffer from a fallacy of composition. The exercise suggests that techvaluations are frothy, but not bubbling.  任何行业的公司和投资者都很难搞清自己是否处于泡沫之中。为此，熊彼特为全球科技公司设计了三个心智测试来帮助判断。这些测试审视公司的现金流状况，看投资者对各公司有无加以区分，并检验这些公司未来收益预测是否存在合成谬误。测试显示，科技公司的估值正在起沫，但还没有构成虚高。  The firsttest is cashflow, and the industry passes it with flying colours. In 2001 abouthalf of all listed tech firms were unable to convert their sales into harddollars. Times have changed. In the past 12 months the biggest 150 technologycompanies generated a mighty $350bn of cashflow after capitalexpenditures—higher than the total cashflow over the same period of all thenon-financial companies listed in Japan, for instance.  第 一个测试针对现金流，科技行业在这方面表现出色。2001年，约半数上市科技公司无法将销售转化为真金白银。时移势易。在过去一年，最 大的150家科技公司在扣除资本支出后现金流达3500亿美元之巨，比同期在日本上市的所有非金融公司的总现金流还高。  In abu