人力资源需求的预测英文.pptVIP

人力资源需求的预测 人力资源供求状况分析 升职 升职 招聘 岗位编制 调入 降职 降职 离职 调出 人才市场 竞争对手 其他部门 其他业务 本部门 本部门 人力资源需求的预测 A key component of HRP is forecasting the number and type of people needed to meet organizational objectives. A variety of organizational factors, including competitive strategy, technology, structure, and productivity, can influence the demand Forecasting HR Requirements Estimate of numbers and kinds of employees the organization will need at future dates Demand for firm’s goods or services must be forecast Forecast is then converted into people requirements Forecasting HR Availability Determining whether the firm will be able to secure employees with the necessary skills, and from what sources these individuals may be obtained Show whether the needed employees may be obtained from within the company, from outside the organization, or from a combination of the two sources 人才储备 第一年 第二年 第三年 n1 n2 n3 招聘 招聘 人才储备1 人才储备2 n2－（n１＋人才储备１）＝招聘需求 n3－（n2－人才储备2）＝人才储备需求 人才稀缺度越高 人才储备越重要 规划的关键是n1、n2、n3的确定 定量分析方法(Quantitative Approaches ) Quantitative approaches to forecasting involve the use of statistical or mathematical technique; they are the approaches used by theoreticians and professional planners. 趋势预测法 (Trend analysis ) “With the past, we can see trajectories into the future - both catastrophic and creative projections. -----John Ralston Saul The Trend Analysis module allows you to plot aggregated response data over time. This is especially valuable, if you are conducting a long running survey and would like to measure differences in perception and responses over time. 预测步骤 ①收集企业在过去几年内人员数量的数据 ②根据这些数据做图，用数学方法进行修正，使其成为平滑曲线 ③将这条曲线延长就可以看出未来的变化趋势 『例题』某企业过去8年人员的数据如下表，预测今后第二年和第四年人力资源的需求是多少。 年度 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 人数 450 455 465 480 485 490 510 525 ? 定性分析法（Qualitative analysis） Qualitative approaches to forecasting are less statistical, attempting to reconcile the interests, abilities, and aspirations of individual employees with the current a