工程项目投标决策的风险分析-建筑与土木工程专业论文.docxVIP

Decision of project bidding risk analysis Abstract Project bidding is a complicated and completive activity on the ground that any project bidding has its specification and requirements. Therefore, there are lots of risks during the bidding process. This article is mainly to analysis the risks during the decision process applied the method of Decision tree analysis, Analytic sensibility process, Gray system Theory, Monte Carlo Theory, Analytic hierarchy process, etc. According to the process of risk recognition, this article is adopted the method of AHP (analytic hierarchy process) to evaluate the risk on the base of survey result by the concerned expert and analyses the risk factors in hierarchy, which is hopefully to recognize the risk grade in general during the bidding phase. Regarding to Application of the method AHP, it is scientific and effectively evaluated the bidding risk for the construction company, and also it is provided the basis in theory for the above subject. Modeling AHP risk evaluation system and applied it in the actually project bidding phase, which can be contribute to controlling and better to manage the risk for contractor. Applied the model of Analytic hierarchy process to analysis the degreed of the risk, it can be recognized the risk affects by the contractor and give the Risk coping strategies, thereby , avoid or weaken the ricks from the project bidding. Key words: Project bidding；Risk analysis； Analytic hierarchy process；Risk coping strategy； 致 谢 本文是在我的导师孙昌玲老师 悉心指导下完成的。 首先我要感谢孙昌玲老师两 年多来对我的辛勤 教育和培 养。在读研期间， 孙老师扎实深厚的理 论知识，严谨求实的治学态度，精益求精的敬 业精神，诲 人不倦的良好风范，值得我终生学习，不论是在学习上还是在生活上， 孙老师 都给了我极大的关心和帮助，为我们创造了良好的学习环 境与氛围。在我撰写 毕业论文的过程中，孙老师多次询问我的论文进度，对我在论文撰写过程中碰 到的问题给予了耐心 细致的解答， 帮助我开拓研究思路，使我的 论文撰写更加 顺利，导师对于学术问题 的严谨求实的态度给我留下了深刻的印象。在 这两年 多的学习生活中，我不但 从孙老师 那里学到了专业知识，而且 还跟孙老师学到 了很多待人接物的哲理， 这些都让我受益终身。从论文的选题，文献的阅读、 论文的撰写及修改各 个阶段，无不凝聚了 导师的汗水和心血，在此，我 对孙老 师表示深深的感 谢。 我还要对我的任课老师牛忠荣教授、王建国教授和盛宏玉教 授至以衷心的 感谢和诚挚的敬意。同时，我还要感谢李金华、胡雷、张晓培、周宜庭、 徐新 科、徐长新、方娇 、何丽丽、汪莉、姚欢 等