金融学·课件梳理13-REAL-OPTIONS.docxVIP

2017-2018学年度第二学期期末考试复习材料金融学·课件梳理@群众演员Lesson 13 Real option第13课实物期权1、IntroductionMain Idea: Investment decision can be treated as the exercisingof an option.主要观点：投资决策可被视为期权的行使。Firm has option to invest.企业有选择投资的权利。Need not exercise the option now — can wait for moreinformation.不需要现在就做选择--可以等待更多的信息。If investment is irreversible (sunk cost), there is an opportunitycost of investing now rather than waiting.如果投资是不可逆的（沉没成本），现在有一个投资的机会成本而不是等待。Opportunity cost (value of option) can be very large.机会成本（期权价值）可能非常大。The greater the uncertainty, the greater the value of the firm’soptions to invest, and the greater the incentive to keep theseoptions open.不确定性越大，公司选择投资的价值就越大，激励这些期权的动机就越大。Note that value of a firm is value of its capital in place plusthevalue of its growth options.请注意，公司的价值是其资本到位的价值加上其增长期权的价值。Any decision involving sunk costs can be viewed this way:任何涉及沉没成本的决定都可以这样看待：Opening a copper mine.Closing a copper mine.Building an oil tanker.Mothballing an oil tanker.Reactivating a mothballed tanker.Scrapping a tanker.Installing scrubbers on coal-burning power plant.Signing a long-term fuel contract.Undertaking an RD program.Why look at investment decisions this way? What’s wrong withthe standard NPV rule?为什么用这种方式看待投资决策？标准NPV规则有什么不对吗？With uncertainty and irreversibility, NPV rule is often wrong —very wrong. Option theory gives better answers.由于不确定性和不可逆性，NPV规则常常是错误的-非常错误的。期权理论给出了更好的答案。Can value important “real” options, such as value of land,offshore oil reserves, or patent that provides an option to invest.可以评估重要的“真实”选项，如土地价值、海洋石油储量或提供投资选择权的专利。Can determine value of flexibility. For example:Flexibility from delaying electric power plant construction.可以确定灵活性的价值。例如：延缓电厂建设的灵活性。Flexibility from installing small turbine units instead of buildinga large coal-fired plant.安装小汽轮机机组的灵活性，而不是建设大型燃煤电厂。Flexibility from buying tradeable emission allowances instead ofinstalling scrubbers.购买可交易排放物的灵活性，而不是安装洗涤器。Value of more flexible contract provisions.价值比较灵活的合同条款。Option theory emphasizes u