高盛2009年全球能源研究报告之中国篇.pdfVIP

October 19, 2009 Global: Energy: Oil October 19, 2009 Global: Energy: China trip takeaways: Bullish crude oil, met coal views reinforced Reiterate global oil, met coal favorites post China trip We spent last week visiting local and foreign oil, coal, and infrastructure- related companies as well as equity investors in Beijing and Shenzhen, China. The trip reinforced our bullish crude oil and metallurgical coal views over the remainder of 2009 and through 2010. Global oil favorites include BG, Cameron, CNOOC, Lukoil, Petrobras, Reliance, Statoil, Suncor, Technip, and Weatherford. Our favorite global coal equities include Alpha Natural, Hidili Industry International, Massey, Mechel, and Peabody. China trip refinfoces bullish crude oil view Key oil market takeaways include: (1) Sustained oil demand growth in China on-track, with the rebound this year having been driven mostly by domestic drivers. (2) Domestic crude oil supply growth expected to remain anemic, leading to international oil acquisitions by Chinese major oils. (3) Arjun N. Murti Government “stock piling” of crude oil is likely to be a sustainable source (212) 357-0931 | arjun.murti@ of demand growth for many decades. (4) New refinery start-ups and Goldman, Sachs Co. product pricing mechanism impacting refined product inventories. Oil services: the opportunity for western oil service companies is likely to Kelvin Koh, CFA +852-2978-1218 | kelvin.koh@ increase as activity shifts to more complex reservoirs and deepwater. Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Robust natural gas demand growth expec