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Batteries for electric drive vehicles evaluation of future characteristics and costs through a Delphi study精品.pdf

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Batteries for electric drive vehicles evaluation of future characteristics and costs through a Delphi study精品

welcome Batteries for Electric Drive Vehicles: Evaluation of Future Characteristics and Costs through a Delphi Study by Anant D. Vyas, Henry K. Ng, Danilo J. Santini, and John L. Anderson Argonne National Laboratory Transportation Technology RD Center 9700 S. Cass Avenue Argonne, IL 60439 Document Type: Conference Paper Conference: SAE International Spring Fuels and Lubricants Meeting Date: May 5-7, 1997 Location: Detroit, Michigan Abstract Introduction Electric Drive Vehicle Characteristics Battery Performance and Cost Summary Acknowledgments References Tables Copyright Information ABSTRACT Uncertainty about future costs and operating attributes of electric drive vehicles (EVs and HEVs) has contributed to considerable debate regarding the market viability of such vehicles. One way to deal with such uncertainty, common to most emerging technologies, is to pool the judgments of experts in the field. Data from a two-stage Delphi study are used to project the future costs and operating characteristics of electric drive vehicles. The experts projected basic vehicle characteristics for EVs and HEVs for the period 2000-2020. They projected the mean EV range at 179 km in 2000, 270 km in 2010, and 358 km in 2020. The mean HEV range on battery power was projected as 145 km in 2000, 212 km in 2010, and 244 km in 2020. Experts opinions on 10 battery technologies are analyzed and characteristics of initial battery packs for the mean power requirements are presented. A procedure to compute the cost of replacement battery packs is described, and the resulting replacement costs are presented. Project