Venter, Experience Rating精选.pdfVIP

2014-CAS8 §5 Venter, Experience Rating HCM 5/13/14, Page 198 Section 5, Venter, Experience Rating123 The article by Venter should be read after you have read the other papers on Experience Rating. Venterʼs article was written to help explain the 1991 changes in the Workers Compensation Experience Rating Plan. It was directed at actuaries and other knowledgeable insurance professionals. This short reading has a relatively high ratio of expected points on the exam per page. It is dense with ideas. Carefully look over his Tables and discussion at Venterʼs pages 7 through 9.124 After the first reading, do some past exam questions. Then wait a few weeks and read it again, and try some more past exam questions. Repeat the process as often as you are able to or until you are satisfied that you have absorbed the main ideas. 123 “Experience Rating - Equity and Predictive Accuracy,” by Gary G. Venter. CAS Leaning Objectives B3 and B4. 124 These are similar to material in “Workersʼ Compensation Experience Rating: What Every Actuary Should Know,” by Gillam, which I discuss in my previous section. 2014-CAS8 §5 Venter, Experience Rating HCM 5/13/14, Page 199 125 Parameter Uncertainty: Parameter uncertainty is one of the phenomena that helps explain NCCIʼs current form of the experience rating plan credibilities as a function of the size of risk. There are random fluctuations from year to year in the risk processes of insureds. Parameter uncertainty involves fluctuations that affect most or all insureds somewhat similarly, regardless of size. Venter at page 6: “all insureds are subject to variations due to changing conditions and this does not decrease by size of firm.” For example, Workers Compensation insuredsʼ risk processes might vary depending on the changes in economic conditions, recession or expansion. Similar i