2013ICM论文.pdfVIP

In recent years, the earth’s health gradually degenerates due to unsustainable resource utilization. The state of the earth health is predicted through establishing the dynamic model. We choose the air quality index (AQI) as the measure standard of the earth health. Then we analyze the earth health indicator so as to predict the state shift of the earth health. First, we combine six pollutant items to calculate the AQI. Using statistical analysis, the factors influencing the air quality mainly include fossil fuel combustion, soil desertification, forest and wetland. They are classified as the emission factor and the absorption factor. We regard every city as a node. Through the improvement of the Gaussian plume model, we simulate the dynamic process of pollutant diffusion. The pollutant density of every node is determined by the superposition of the two factors. Thus the structure of the dynamic network can be optimized. Next, the air quality can reflect the biological survival condition. If the state of the earth health shifts, numerous species die out rapidly. The grey model is established to predict the critical air quality and the test shows that its prediction accuracy is high. In addition, we use the importance degree evaluation matrix to determine the key nodes of the dynamic network model. Then we get 33 key nodes. After the calculation of the node degree values, we obtain the importance degree of every node. The greater importance degree causes more pollution on the entire network. In order to establish the adjacency matrix, we take the own degree values of the nodes, the shortest distance between the nodes, network efficiency and its impact factors into consideration. Thus, we get the value of the importance contribution. The greater value indicates the closer relationship between adjacent nodes.