运筹学精品课课件第四章 Decisions Under Risk.pdfVIP

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运筹学精品课课件第四章 Decisions Under Risk.pdf

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运筹学精品课课件第四章 Decisions Under Risk

Chapter 4 Decisions under Risk 4.1 Basic Conception 4.2 Decisions under Risk Chapter 4 Decisions under Risk 4.1 Basic Conception 4.1.1 Basic factors of Decision 1. Decision Maker：principal part of decision, a person or organizing; 2. Decision ：Two or more alternative schemes, written as d j ; 3. State ：Natural states following decision implementation, written as θ ; i θ 4. State Probability ：subjective estimation of state i probability, written as( P )θi ; 5. Payoff：The benefit or loss implementation of decision dj under state θi is written as u ij , expressed by payoff table. Chapter 4 Decisions under Risk Payoff Table of Decision under Risk d j d1 … dn θ i θ u11 … u1n 1 θ um 1 … umn m Chapter 4 Decisions under Risk Example 1 A company is making decision on investment strategy of next year: increase equipment investment or not. Sales situation has three probabilities: high sales, medium sales, low sales. If increase equipment investment, the benefit under three situations will be 80, 20,-5 respectively, otherwise the benefit will be 40, 7, 1 respectively. Please describe the problem with decision analysis terms. Chapter 4 Decisions under Risk Suppose decision d1 :increase equipment investment d : maintain investment. 2 State θ : high sales;θ :medium sales; θ