基于云物元模型的国内矿业项目并购财务风险预警评价研究郑明贵a.DOCVIP

基于云物元模型的国内矿业项目并购财务风险预警评价研究 郑明贵a，王训洪b （江西理工大学，a.资源与环境工程学院b.矿业贸易与投资研究中心，江西 赣州 341000） 摘要：国内矿业项目并购是一项充满风险的投资活动，其中财务风险是其成功与否的重要因素，因此，对国内矿业项目并购的财务风险进行预警评价具有重要意义。首先采用专家调查法对财务风险的主要影响因素进行了识别；其次建立了风险预警评价指标体系，采用德尔菲法确定了预警评价指标的权重；最后将云模型引入到物元分析中，建立了基于云物元模型的国内矿业项目并购财务风险预警评价模型，并将模型运用到实际案例中，利用Matlab软件编程计算出各评价指标的隶属度，得出该案例并购财务风险等级为一般，预警信号为黄灯，评价结果与实际较为吻合。 关键词：矿业并购；财务风险；预警评价；云物元模型 中图分类号：TD-9;F279 文献标志码：A Financial warning risk assessment research on cloud matter element model base MA of domestic mining projects ZHENG Minggui a，WANG Xunhong b (a. Research Center of Mining Trade and Investment,; b. Faculty of Resource and Environmental Engineering, Jiangxi University of Science and Technology, Ganzhou 341000, China ) Abstract：MA of domestic mining projects is a full of risks investment activities, among which, financial risk is an important factor in its success, therefore, it is of great significance on financial warning risk assessment on MA of domestic mining projects. This article first identified the major influence factors on financial risk by expert investigation method; and then established a risk warning assessment index system, defined the index weights by Delphi, finally introduces cloud model to matter element analysis, put forward a financial risk assessment model on MA of cloud matter element model based domestic project, and then applied it into practical cases, calculated the membership degree of the case with the help of Matlab software. At the end of the paper, we drew a conclusion, MA financial risk level of the practical case is general, warning signal is yellow and the evaluation results comparatively consistent with the practice. Key words：mining MA; financial risk; warning assessment; cloud matter element model 随着信息化的快速发展和资本的广泛流动，企业并购以成为企业获取先进技术、加速经济发展、提升自身竞争力的重要手段。回顾国内外并购案例，发现存在大量的失败案例，尤其是我国，其失败率高达70%，主要原因之一是没有解决好并购中的财务问题[1]。生产规模的不同会导致并购财务风险的差异性。因此，为降低国内矿业项目并购中的财务风险，在此对国内矿业项目并购财务风险进行预警评价研究。 1国内矿业项目并购财务风险预警评价指标体系的构建 1.1风险因素识别 财务风险因素识别是构建