张建君《组织与管理》教学资料：10chap06.pptVIP

6 - Importance of decision-making Decisions choices from two or more alternatives all organizational members make decisions Everybody has to make lot of decisions in his/her lifetime Decision as a Process: Incremental Decision Process Model Empirical research: 25 decision processes Decision sequence Stimulus: opportunity, problem, crisis Solutions: given (ready-made), customized Identification: recognition, diagnosis Development: search, screen, design Selection: judgment evaluation-choice, analysis evaluation, bargaining evaluation-choice Authorization Continued Dynamic factors: --interrupts: sudden events cause change in pace or direction --scheduling delays --feedback delays --timing delays and speedups --comprehensive cycles --failure recycles continued Models of strategic decision process --simple impasse decision processes --political design decision process --basic search decision processes --modified search decision processes --basic design decision processes --blocked design decision processes --dynamic design decision processes 有限理性 环境复杂，模糊、不一致信息；不完备、不对称信息 人们解释不同(经历经验、身份角色、利益，等） 私有利益（组织作为政治联合体） 时间压力 注意力分配 Escalation of Commitment Programmed versus nonprogrammed decision 卡内基模型下的决策过程 比较群体和个人决策:三个臭皮匠顶的了诸葛亮吗？ 群体决策的优缺点 优点： －－集思广益 －－互补 －－开放 －－有效性 －－稳妥性和效率 缺点 －－反应慢 －－团体偏移：妥协结果可能是保守或冒险 －－遵从压力 －－矛盾和对抗 民主与独裁 各自的优势 开明专制的要求：咨询式独裁 东亚国家的经验 The rational versus bounded rationality model Garbage Can Model:野渡无人舟自横 ?Garbage can Disorder, chaos, random Choices looking for problems, issues looking for decision situations, solutions looking for issues, decision makers looking for work Organized anarchy Continued Streams of events --Problems --Solutions --Participants --Choice opportunities ? consequences: --solutions proposed when problems do not exist --choices made without solving problems --problems may persist without being solved --a few problems are solved. Application Universities Public organizations Examples: Casablanca, 杨乃武与小白菜一案 Contrast with rational mod