complex ecological dynamics and eradicability of the vector borne macroparasitic disease, lymphatic filariasis复杂的生态动力学和媒介传播的eradicability macroparasitic疾病,淋巴丝虫病.pdfVIP

complex ecological dynamics and eradicability of the vector borne macroparasitic disease, lymphatic filariasis复杂的生态动力学和媒介传播的eradicability macroparasitic疾病,淋巴丝虫病.pdf

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complex ecological dynamics and eradicability of the vector borne macroparasitic disease, lymphatic filariasis复杂的生态动力学和媒介传播的eradicability macroparasitic疾病,淋巴丝虫病

Complex Ecological Dynamics and Eradicability of the Vector Borne Macroparasitic Disease, Lymphatic Filariasis Manoj Gambhir*, Edwin Michael Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Medicine, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom Abstract Background: The current global efforts to control the morbidity and mortality caused by infectious diseases affecting developing countries—such as HIV/AIDS, polio, tuberculosis, malaria and the Neglected Tropical Diseases (NTDs)—have led to an increasing focus on the biological controllability or eradicability of disease transmission by management action. Here, we use an age-structured dynamical model of lymphatic filariasis transmission to show how a quantitative understanding of the dynamic processes underlying infection persistence and extinction is key to evaluating the eradicability of this macroparasitic disease. Methodology/Principal Findings: We investigated the persistence and extinction dynamics of lymphatic filariasis by undertaking a numerical equilibrium analysis of a deterministic model of parasite transmission, based on varying values of the initial L3 larval density in the system. The results highlighted the likely occurrence of complex dynamics in parasite transmission with three major outcomes for the eradicability of filariasis. First, both vector biting and worm breakpoint thresholds are shown to be complex dynamic entities with values dependent on the nature and magnitude of vector-and host specific density-dependent processes and the degree of host infection aggregation prevailing in endemic communities. Second, these thresholds as well as the potential size of the attractor domains and hence system resilience are strongly dependent o

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