the impact of weather on influenza and pneumonia mortality in new york city, 1975–2002 a retrospective study天气对流感和肺炎死亡率的影响在纽约,1975 - 2002年的回顾性研究.pdfVIP

The Impact of Weather on Influenza and Pneumonia Mortality in New York City, 1975–2002: A Retrospective Study 1 1 2 Robert E. Davis *, Colleen E. Rossier , Kyle B. Enfield 1 Department of Environmental Sciences, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, Virginia, United States of America, 2 Division of Pulmonary and Critical Care, Department of Medicine, University of Virginia Health System, Charlottesville, Virginia, United States of America Abstract The substantial winter influenza peak in temperate climates has lead to the hypothesis that cold and/or dry air is a causal factor in influenza variability. We examined the relationship between cold and/or dry air and daily influenza and pneumonia mortality in the cold season in the New York metropolitan area from 1975–2002. We conducted a retrospective study relating daily pneumonia and influenza mortality for New York City and surroundings from 1975–2002 to daily air temperature, dew point temperature (a measure of atmospheric humidity), and daily air mass type. We identified high mortality days and periods and employed temporal smoothers and lags to account for the latency period and the time between infection and death. Unpaired t-tests were used to compare high mortality events to non-events and nonparametric bootstrapped regression analysis was used to examine the characteristics of longer mortality episodes. We found a statistically significant (p = 0.003) association between periods of low dew point temperature and above normal pneumonia and influenza mortality 17 days later. The duration (r = 20.61) and severity (r = 20.56) of high mortality episodes was inversely correlated with morning dew point temperature prior to and during the