analysis of rabies in china transmission dynamics and control分析中国狂犬病的传播动力学和控制.pdfVIP

Analysis of Rabies in China: Transmission Dynamics and Control 1 1 1 2,3 4 Juan Zhang , Zhen Jin , Gui-Quan Sun , Tao Zhou , Shigui Ruan * 1 Department of Mathematics, North University of China, Taiyuan, Shan’xi, People’s Republic of China, 2 Web Sciences Center, University of Electronic Science and Technology of China, Chengdu, Sichuan, People’s Republic of China, 3 Department of Modern Physics, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei, Anhui, People’s Republic of China, 4 Department of Mathematics, University of Miami, Coral Gables, Florida, United States of America Abstract Human rabies is one of the major public-health problems in China. The number of human rabies cases has increased dramatically in the last 15 years, partially due to the poor understanding of the transmission dynamics of rabies and the lack of effective control measures of the disease. In this article, in order to explore effective control and prevention measures we propose a deterministic model to study the transmission dynamics of rabies in China. The model consists of susceptible, exposed, infectious, and recovered subpopulations of both dogs and humans and describes the spread of rabies among dogs and from infectious dogs to humans. The model simulations agree with the human rabies data reported by the Chinese Ministry of Health. We estimate that the basic reproduction number R0 ~2 for the rabies transmission in China and predict that the number of the human rabies is decreasing but may reach another peak around 2030. We also perform some sensitivity analysis of R0 in terms of the model parameters and compare the effects of culling and immunization of dogs. Our study demonstrates that