Design and Analysis of Accelerated Reliability （可靠性设计与分析的加速）.pdfVIP

Design and Analysis of Accelerated Reliability Tests with Piecewise Linear Failure Rate Functions IEEE SCV RS June 23, 2004 Larry George Problem Solving Tools 1 PST DART Abstract Part 1 proposes piecewise linear failure rate (PLFR) functions, for modeling simplicity and resemblance to the left-hand end of the bathtub curve. It shows how to estimate the PLFR, reliability, infant mortality, and MTBF. It proposes acceleration alternatives, including one that accelerates testing greatly. Part 2 describes how to design and analyze accelerated reliability tests, assuming a piecewise linear failure rate function and power law acceleration. It shows how to obtain credible results, with limited sample size and test time, at one accelerated stress level. It provides estimators for parameters, reliability, MTBF, confidence intervals, and it shows how to test model assumptions and verify MTBF. It is inspired by the observation that failure rates are not constant, often because of infant mortality. 2 PST Part 1 Contents Motivation for PLFR MTBF and reliability for PLFR Acceleration of PLFR and RAF 3 PST Vision Statement Know and use reliability, “the probability of successful function [according to customers] to specified ages [DoA, warranty, PM, useful life] under specified conditions [field conditions].” Management wants reliability before field data are available So predict and test No fair to say you don’t have ages at failures! [] 4 PST DART Objectives Make credible MTBF, reliability, and failure rate function es