global pyrogeography the current and future distribution of wildfire全球pyrogeography野火的当前和未来的分布.pdfVIP

Global Pyrogeography: the Current and Future Distribution of Wildfire 1 1 ´ 1,2 3 3,4 Meg A. Krawchuk , Max A. Moritz *, Marc-Andre Parisien , Jeff Van Dorn , Katharine Hayhoe 1 Department of Environmental Science, Policy and Management, University of California, Berkeley, California, United States of America, 2 Natural Resources Canada, Canadian Forest Service, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada, 3 ATMOS Research and Consulting, Lubbock, Texas, United States of America, 4 Department of Geosciences, Texas Tech University, Lubbock, Texas, United States of America Abstract Climate change is expected to alter the geographic distribution of wildfire, a complex abiotic process that responds to a variety of spatial and environmental gradients. How future climate change may alter global wildfire activity, however, is still largely unknown. As a first step to quantifying potential change in global wildfire, we present a multivariate quantification of environmental drivers for the observed, current distribution of vegetation fires using statistical models of the relationship between fire activity and resources to burn, climate conditions, human influence, and lightning flash rates at a coarse spatiotemporal resolution (100 km, over one decade). We then demonstrate how these statistical models can be used to project future changes in global fire patterns, highlighting regional hotspots of change in fire probabilities under future climate conditions as simulated by a global climate model. Based on current conditions, our results illustrate how the availability of resources to burn and climate conditions conducive to combustion jointly determine why some parts of the world are fire-prone a