都市邻里公园之区位选择研究.pdfVIP

地理學報 第四十五期：51-71 (2006) 51 JOURNAL OF GEOGRAPHICAL SCIENCE (45) : 51-71 (2006) 都市鄰里公園之區位選擇研究 A Study of the Location Selection for Urban Neighborhood Park * ** 衛萬明 林宏晉 Wann-Ming Wey Hung-Chin Lin Abstract This paper proposes a model for use in selecting the location for a park facility where an uncertainty population is taken as a factor. In other existing models, the uncertainty population factor is simplified by using a fixed value or a value based on existing but inaccurate data. These methods oversimplify the issue and do not reflect actual circumstances, thereby causing inaccurate decisions. The proposed model seeks to rectify this problem. Taiwan has already reached a certain level of development that the old models are no longer appropriate. The proposed model seeks to complement the current situation while taking into consideration the uncertainty population factor. In the research conducted for the creation of the proposed model, detailed reviews of existing location theories, Genetic Algorithm, Monte Carlo simulation and Simulation Optimization have been made. A regression model is used to make a projection on the uncertainty population and to consider the uncertainty distance of travel. The Monte Carlo simulation is used for risk estimation. This study then integrates P-median concept of location theory