游祖煌毕业设计.doc

摘要：自改革开放以来，我国的电力行业取得了前所未有的发展速度。电力有相适应的增长来满足人类日益增长的物质与精神文明的需要世界在发展，人口在增加，要求能源电力需求的变化历来被视为经济发展的晴雨表人均用电量是衡量一个国家现代化程度的主要指标。电力系统预测是电力系统发电计划的重要组成部分，也是电力系统经济运行的基础。在当前电力发展迅速和供应紧张的情况下，合理地进行电力系统规划和运行极其重要。预测在电力系统规划和运行方面发挥的重要作用，具有明显的效益，负荷预测实质上是对电力市场需求的预测。近年来，福建经济增长一直快于全国平均水平，这其中，电力的作用功不可没。电力作为重要的基础性行业，长期以来一直被作为国民经济发展的先行工程而被广泛关注和重视，特别是在海峡西岸经济区建设中更担负着保障经济建设持续快速发展的重要使命。Abstract Production and exploitation of electric power are mankind the society progressive important marking, is also a modern civilization to develop necessary foundation.Since the reform opened, the electric power profession of our country obtained unprecedented development speed.The electric power has mutually adapt of the growth come to satisfy mankind to increase increasingly of the demand of material and spiritual civilization.The world is developing, the population is increasing, have to also request to have enough energy to promise.The electric power demanding variety is in times gone by seen as the barometer of economic development, persons all using to give or get an electric shock quantity is the main index sign which measures a national modernization degree.Electric power systems using to give or get an electric shock a quantity estimate is an electric power system to generate electricity planned of the importance constitute part, is also the foundation of the economic movement of the electric power system.At current electric power development quick with supply under nervous circumstance, carry on electric power system a programming and circulate very importance reasonably.Giving or getting an electric shock a quantity estimate to program and circulate the important function that the aspect develops in the electric power system, having an obvious economic performance, carrying estimate substantially is to the demanding estimate of the electric power market. The estimate of using the electricity quantity is the charged barbed wire net foundation of programming design and construction, predicting of accura