金融4（Finance 4）.docVIP

金融4（Finance 4） Analysis of Japanese yen trend after Japan earthquake Economic researcher Liu Hong Synopsis Will Japans major earthquake reverse the trend of weaker yen? From the angle of market and policy Of the yen is unlikely to be repeated after the Kobe earthquake in 1995, the strong yen, short-term Although there is a slight appreciation of the possibility, but 2 to 3 months later, will face devaluation risk. day Faced with the complex situation of disaster relief, deflation and possible economic recession, the government has a weak yen policy Strategy may become an option. Taking into account the possible dollar potential, Japan has successfully implemented a weak yen policy Rise in probability. Affected by the weak yen policy, the yen could slide to 85-90 against the dollar during the year Yen range. Since February this year, the pressure on the depreciation of the yen has gradually increased, and the yen has fluctuated against the dollar 81 yen slipped to 83 yen. But after the 9 magnitude earthquake in Japan in March 11th, Although the yen fell to 83.30 yen for a while, but then back up, closed up to 81.86 Meta water level. 14, the yen against the U.S. dollar hit a new high of 16 years, rose to 80.63 yen in Japan The central bank to the market sharply stabilized after the injection. 15, the yen continued to appreciate slightly. Yen weakness Was it reversed by a major earthquake? This paper tries to discuss the trend of yen from the point of view of market and policy. First, the yen is unlikely to be repeated after the Kobe earthquake in 1995, strong The Great Hanshin earthquake in 1995 caused 6400 deaths, 10 trillion yen loss, but on the ground 3 months after the quake, the yen rose sharply to 79.75 yen against the dollar from 101 yen 22%. The market generally believes that the main reason for the Japanese yen after the earthquake is good: first, the Japanese investor class Back to the rescue and reconstruction, capital reduction of overseas assets, holdings