Stochastic Arable-Nitrogen Abatement from Heterogeneous Sources Cost-Effective Coastal Nitrogen Abatement：（随机Arable-Nitrogen减轻来自异构数据源的沿海氮减排成本效益）.pdfVIP

Stochastic Arable-Nitrogen Abatement from Heterogeneous SourcesCost-Eective Coastal Nitrogen Abatement Mark Brady Department of Economics, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, 750 07 Uppsala, Sweden June 18, 2002 Paper presented to World Congress of Environmental and Resource Economists, Monterey, California, June 24 - 27 2002. E-mail: mark.brady@ekon.slu.se Abstract Theimplicationsofthepropagationofuncertaintyfortheeciencyofstochas- tic water pollution control were analyzed. The empirical analysis focused on nitrogen pollution of the Baltic Sea from Swedish crop farms. A two moment model (mean and variance) of the distribution of coastal load was developed and integrated with an economic model of arable land-use choice. It was shown that uncertainty propagates through the system if arable emissions and retention are negatively correlated, and riverine loads (emissions less retention) positively cor- related. Under these conditions a precision requirement increases the eciency of abatement in catchments with relatively high load variability ceteris paribus. Relative abatement increased signicantly with the precision requirement in high retention regions because these regions had a relatively large impact on the vari- ability of coastal load. Thus if the Baltic damage function is convex then in- creasing abatement in high retention regions should increase overall economic eciency. 1 1 Introduction RiverinenitrogenloadstotheBalticSeavaryconsiderablyfromyeartoyearduetoran- dom uctuations in the weather (Arheimer and Brandt, 1998; Stålnacke et al., 1999). Abatement targets, however, tend to be set in terms o