中国房地产市场在货币政策传导机制中的作用 - 北京大学经济学院.pdfVIP

中国房地产市场在货币政策传导机制中 的作用：基于2000-2009 年数据的研究 冯 科 北京大学经济学院工作论文 编号：C-2010-09-014 2010 年9月27 日 版权归作者所有 中国房地产市场在货币政策传导机制中的作用：基于 2000-2009 年数据的研究 冯科* 内容提要：中国正处于工业化和城镇化的加速进程中，房地产市场在国民经济中发挥 着极其重要的作用。房地产价格成为中国人民银行制定和实施货币政策所要考虑的重要因素 之一。本文通过对 2000-2009 年中国宏观经济与房地产市场的相关数据展开实证分析，来研 究我国房地产市场在货币政策传导机制中的作用。研究表明，利率和货币供应量均不能通过 房地产价格对消费和投资产生显著作用，即中国房地产价格的财富效应和投资效应较弱，房 地产市场的货币政策传导机制不够顺畅。最后，针对提高房地产市场的货币政策传导机制的 有效性，作者提出了一系列建议。 关键词：房地产市场 货币政策 传导机制 The Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism Effect of Chinese Real Estate Market: Based on the Data from 2000 to 2009 FENG Ke* Abstract: China is in the acceleration process of industrialization and urbanization, real estate market plays a significant role in national economy, and its price has been considered to be an important factor during the monetary police decision and execution process by the Peoples Bank of China. This article carried out an empirical study on the real estates monetary policy transmission mechanism effect, which based on related data of Chinese macro-economic and real estate market from 2000-2009. The result shows that neither interest rate nor money supply can exert an obviously influence on consumption and investment through real estate price, that is, real estate prices wealth effect and investment effect are weak, and its monetary policy transmission mechanism is