wind energy forecasting 风能预测 - energy foundation china.pdf

Wind Energy Forecasting 风风能能预测预测 © 2010 3TIER, Inc. Wind Energy Forecasting: Predicting a variable resource to increase its value 风能预测：预测波动的风能资源以增加其价值 This example: • Highly Variable Output 波动幅度较高的输出 • No output 10% of time 10%的时间没有输出 • Output = 20% of capacity half the time 输出在额定容量20%以下的占半数 © 2010 3TIER, Inc. Benefits of Wind Energy Forecasting 风风能能预测预测的价的价值值 Forecasts can be used in many ways to benefit the industry: 很多方面都需用到很多方面都需用到预测预测，，为为工工业业生生产带产带来价来价值值 Better understanding of revenue 能更好的理解收益 PPossibilitibility tto operatte iin merchhantt conditiditions iinstteadd off acceptiting Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs) 市场环境下运行的可能性，而非接受购电协议。 Ability to better schedule maintenance – both in terms of producing more power, but also avoiding days where cranes are hired, but notnot usedused. 更好地安排检修计划－－生产更多电能，避免出现浪费情况。 Allows better integgration of wind into the ppower ggrid. This enables the installation of more wind farms! 允许电网接纳更多的风电，这使得可建设更多的风电场。 BOTTOMBOTTOM LINELINE: MMakke wiindd more profitfitablble. 最后：使风电利润更大 © 2010 3TIER, Inc. STATE-OF-THE-A RT WIND ENERGY FORECASTING 必威体育精装版的必威体育精装版的风风能能预测预测方法方法 © 2010 3TIER, Inc. A State-of-the-art forecast system 一种种必威体育精装版的必威体育精装版的预测预测系系统统 全球天气数据 局部天气数据 高分辨率地表数据 历史天前预测 SCADA数据 场外观测 风速和天气预报 数值天气预测 神经网络 专专用用统计统计模型模型 功率曲功率曲线线 风速和天气预报 天前和周前预测 小时前预测 © 2010 3TIER, Inc. Situational Analysis - Forecast Horizons 情况分析情况分析-预测预测尺度尺度 Observations 观测 NNumeriicall WWeathther MModdellilling 数数值值天气建模天气建模 Madden-Julian Oscillati