苏州社会消费品零售总额简析.pdfVIP

ABSTRACT 苏州社会消费品总额简析 ABSTRACT With the continuous development of The Times, peoples consumption demand is growing, social total retail sales of consumer goods is more increasing.During the 11th five-year plan period,the governments a series of adjustment of consumption demand make consumer demand becoming a key factor to the economic development of our country. And the total retail sales of social consumer goods well reflect the characteristic of the elements. Nowadays, understanding the volatility of market economy in a timely manner and reaction has become a major country a substantial part of our economic work. Luckily understanding of the national consumer demand just can use the total retail sales of social consumer goods . From the 11th five-year plan to recent years, the phenomenon of insufficient consumer demand in the economic market is existing, and the complex international situation, all make the country in lack of foreign demand and domestic demand. So predicting the total retail sales of social consumer goods is large positive impact on solving the problem of domestic demand. This article first part carries on the clustering of the usual social total retail sales of consumer goods to analyze the past consumer demand having several big changes. And then discusses the social total retail sales of consumer goods by using time series analysis methods for modeling and forecasting, including a brief introduction of ARMA model and ARIMA model. The articleusesthe ARIMA （p,d,q）* （P,D,Q）^smodel for the forecast. Finally established successful model with time series analysis method,after determining the relative optimal model, the first thing is fitting to the original data. When finding the fitting good,we will compare the forecast with the real data of 2013 to determine the effectiveness of the model. Key words ：To