Decomposition methodology in industrial energy demand analysis.pdfVIP

Pergamon Energy Vol. 20, No. 1 I, pp. 1081-1095. 1995 Copyright 0 1995 filsevier Science Ltd Printed in Great Britain. All rights reserved 0360-5442/95 $9.50 + 0.00 DECOMPOSITION METHODOLOGY IN INDUSTRIAL ENERGY DEMAND ANALYSIS B. W. ANG Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering, National University of Singapore, 10 Kent Ridge Crescent, Singapore 05 11 (Received I7 April 1995) Abstract-We discuss some methodological and application issues related to decomposing national industrial energy consumption into changes associated with aggregate industrial rxoduction level, production structure and sectoral energy intensity. Past studies are classified and reviewed with respect to study scope and decomposition technique. A framework for decomposition method formulation which incorporates three different approaches is presented. Several specific methods are described and their applications are illustrated with an example. Relevant application issues, such as method selection, periodwise vs time-series decomposition, significance of levels of sector disaggregation, and result interpretation are discussed. INTRODUCTION Statistical decomposition of changes in industrial energy consumption or in aggregate energy intensity has recently become an actively researched topic. The methodology is used to decompose these changes into contributions from several specified factors. The results obtained are useful in industrial energy demand analysis, as in analyzing past evolving patterns of energy consumption and in projecting future levels of energy demand. In particular, the methodology has been widely used to assess the relative contributions from economic changes, measured in terms of levels of aggregate industrial output and the composition of activity, and from changes in sectoral energy intensities which are given by the quantity of energy needed to achieve a given level of output for each industrial sector. The latter contribution can be influenc