Technologyandcostassessmentof2020-2025fuelefficiency.pdfVIP

Technology and cost assessment of 2020-2025 fuel efficiency technologies for light-duty vehicles in China Hui He International Council on Clean Transportation The 2nd Transportation Forum Nov. 14, 2013 Contents ? Overview ? Methodology ? Adaptation to China ? Regulatory design matters ? Conclusions 2 Overview of the ICCT China technology and cost assessment project ? Purpose: analyze technology pathway and associated costs to meet 5L/100km target in 2020 and equally stringent target beyond 2020 ? Highlights of methodology ? Based on years of technical work in the US and EU ? Adopted in assessing the costs of these technologies – FEV new approach in assessing fuel-saving potentials of future technologies – Ricardo simulation model ? Adopted new approach tear-down analysis ? Adopted most recent assessments of mass-reduction technologies ? High-resolution adaptation to China ? Status: Incomplete / Preliminary. ? Current estimates presented in these slides are a mixture of Eastern European and China cost data. 3 The US approaches to develop fuel economy/GHG standards in general Define Baseline fleet Vehicle technology Determine compliance and project 2017-2025 reference fleet cost and benefit and flexibility analysis mechanisms 定义基准车队、预测未 技术成本研究 决策达标灵活机制 来基准车队 Choose attribute for Estimation of economic basing the standard benefits of the standards 决策标准依据 评估标准的社会经济影