《江苏省城镇居民消费结构分析及预测》.doc

《江苏省城镇居民消费结构分析及预测》 专业班级： 姓名学号： 指导老师： 二〇一三年一月 摘要 研究城镇居民消费对于研究一个地区的经济现状、经济发展是具有重要意义的。本文分析研究2006年至2011年间，江苏省城镇居民的消费水平、消费结构、消费规律等，采用“扩展的线性支出系统模型（简称ELES）”作为基本方法，结合当前江苏省经济发展现状、居民生活水平现状等分析城镇居民消费。从中得出，近年来江苏省城镇居民的消费水平趋于稳定；在消费结构上，边际消费倾向较低，收入对于消费的拉动不足。同时，建立回归模型，对今后几年江苏城镇居民可支配收入、消费性支出、消费结构与消费趋势作出预测。结果得出，江苏省城镇居民可支配收入和消费性支出继续上涨，恩格尔系数稳定地小幅下降，教育等项目的消费日趋增加。最后从政策、消费结构等方面对研究结果提出建议与对策。 关键词：城镇居民消费；扩展的线性支出系统模型；边际消费倾向 ABSTRACT The study of urban residents’ consumption for the study of a regions economic situation, economic development is of great significance. This article analyzes the consumption level of urban residents, the consumption structure and consumption patterns in Jiangsu Province from 2006 to 2011. Then we will use Expended Linear Expendure System as the basic method, anglicizing the urban residents consumption through the current economic development and Current living standards in Jiangsu Province. As a result, in recent years, the consumption level of urban residents in Jiangsu Province stabilized; On the consumption structure, the lower marginal propensity to consume, lack of income for the consumer pulling. At the same time, create a regression model to make a forecast for the next few years, Jiangsu urban residents disposable income, consumer spending, consumption structure and consumption trends. The results obtained, the disposable income of urban residents in Jiangsu Province, and consumer spending continues to raise, the Engel coefficient steadily declined slightly, the increase of consumer education and other projects. Finally, results from the policy, consumption structure recommendations and countermeasures. Keyword: Urban residents consumption; Expended Linear Expendure System; Marginal propensity to consume 目录 摘要 1 ABSTRACT 3 1 导论 5 1.1问题的提出和研究的意义 5 1.2研究的内容及方法 5 2 国内外研究现状 5 3 江苏省城镇居民消费水平分析（2006-20