论文-论中国国际收支双顺差的代价和风险分析报告.docVIP

论中国国际收支双顺差的代价和风险分析 摘 要 金融危机爆发以来，中国的国际收支状况出现了一些新的特点，在国际收支继续保持双顺差的情况下，双顺差的增速有所放缓。中国政府提出转变经济增长模式，由外需拉动转变为内外需同时拉动，同时进一步加大了对外高新技术产品的采购力度，因此中国的货物贸易顺差增速有所放缓。资本与金融账户也正在朝着均衡的方向努力。一方面，中国的经济发展速度和潜力使得越来越多的外商看好中国经济发展的前景，大量的外商直接投资进入中国（其中也有一些是国际游资对华进行投机活动），另一方面，缺乏对外直接投资经验的中国企业正在中国政府的鼓励和引导下贯彻走出去战略，积极探索对外直接投资的新方法、新途径。 总体来看，中国虽然仍然保持着双顺差，但国际收支状况有所改善，有向平衡发展的趋势。常年持续的国际收支双顺差，给中国的经济带来了一些风险，这些风险不仅包括巨额外汇储备管理的难度和人民币升值压力加大还包括了贸易伙伴国对中国实行贸易保护政策。因此解决国际收支不平衡这一问题已经刻不容缓。 本文以金融危机爆发后中国的国际收支数据为出发点，分析双顺差产生的原因和中国因为双顺差所付出的代价，并通过研究双顺差给中国经济带来的各种风险，得出了一些双顺差的风险防范及对策。最后，作者根据中国政府和人民应对双顺差风险的措施和一些已经取得的成果，展望未来中国的国际收支，得出中国的国际收支状况将逐步改善，走向均衡的结论。 关键词：金融危机,国际收支,双顺差,货物贸易,外商直接投资 Preliminary Analysis of the Cost and Risk Resulted from Chinas Balance of Payments Double Surplus Abstract As the financial crisis breaks out, China’s balance of international payments shows some new features. In the condition of the continuous double surplus, the growth is slowing down. The Chinese government has put forward a series of measures to transform the pattern of economic growth------ the overseas market demand and domestic demand in China improve economic development together rather than the overseas marker demand alone. China has enlarged the import scale of high-tech product，so the growth of the China’s goods trade is slowing down. The capital and financial account is tending towards balance .On the one hand, the high rate of economic growth and great potential results in the pouring of FDI. On the other hand, the Chinese enterprise lacking the experience of foreign investment is trying to invest overseas under the Chinese government’s encourage and guidance. General, although China is still keep the double surplus, the balance of international payments is improved. Years of double surplus leads to many risks for China’s economy. These risks include not only the difficulty of the management of foreign exchange reserves and appreciation of RMB, but also the stries by taxing foreign goods. It’s high time that effective measures s