环境学习曲线与我国碳减排目标的地区分解.pdfVIP

第24卷第10期 环境科学’研究 V01．24，No．10 2011年10月 BesearchofEnvironmentalSciences Oct．，2011 环境学习曲线与我国碳减排目标的地区分解 孙根年，李 静，魏艳旭 陕西师范大学旅游与环境学院，陕西西安710012 区)碳排放环境学习曲线(ELC)，并依据ELC模型预测了碳排放强度和碳减排潜力．结果发现，按照过去12a的自然趋 比例分配到9个高碳省区，并依此重新计算各省区碳减排目标和分担率． 关键词：碳排放强度；环境学习曲线；碳减排潜力；区域分担率 中图分类号：X32 文献标志码：A 文章编号：1001—6929(2011)lO—1194—09 andtheAllocationofCarbon EnvironmentalCurves Learning Mitigation DifferentProvincesinChina among Targets SUN Yan-XU Gen-nian，LI Jing，WEI and ofTourism Normal College Environment，ShaanxiUniversity，Xi’an710012，China Chinese announcedthatthecarbonemissions ofthe 2020wouldbereduced Abstract：In2009，the government intensityyear by withthe 2005．Thisisan measureto with climate onsome 40％一45％comparedyear important cope global change．Based environmentaleconomicstheoriesandrelevantstatisticaldatabetween1995and Curves technology 2007，EnvironmentalLearning ofcarbonemissionsin30 werebuiltinChina thecarbonemissions andcarbon provinces mainland，and intensity mitigation wereforecasted．Resultsshow tothenaturaltrendofthelast12 carbon of potential years，themitigation that，according capacity the30studied is15％-58％in2020．Thetotalnumberforthewhole is30．6％．The wasdistributed provinces country 9．4％gap in nine onthebasis ofcarbon and proportionamonghigh-carbonprovinces of“demand”and“possibility”．Thetarget mitigation contributionrateswerethen areferencefortheal