考虑风速变化特性风电容量可信度评估方法.docVIP

. . 　　 本文档下载自 HYPERLINK / 文库下载网，内容可能不完整，您可以点击以下网址继续阅读或下载：  HYPERLINK /doc/9ced2ab902d276a201292e13.html /doc/9ced2ab902d276a201292e13.html 考虑风速变化特性的风电容量可信度评估方法 18 第33卷 第10期 2013年4月5日 中 国 电 机 工 程 学 报 Proceedings of the CSEE Vol.33 No.10 Apr.5, 2013 ?2013 Chin.Soc.for Elec.Eng. (2013) 10-0018-09 中图分类号：TM 715 文献标志码：A 学科分类号：470?40 文章编号：0258-8013 考虑风速变化特性的风电容量可信度评估方法 梁双，胡学浩，张东霞，张宏宇，王皓怀 (中国电力科学研究院，北京市 海淀区 100192) Capacity Credit Evaluation of Wind Generation Considering Wind Speed Variation Characteristics LIANG Shuang, HU Xuehao, ZHANG Dongxia, ZHANG Hongyu, WANG Haohuai (China Electrical Power Research Institute, Haidian District, Beijing 100192, China) ABSTRACT: As the wind penetration increases rapidly in recent years, capacity credit evaluation of wind generation is becoming one of the hottest issues in power system planning. To reflect the correlation between wind output and network load, based on cumulant method，a novel wind output model considering wind speed variation characteristics was proposed, with/doc/9ced2ab902d276a201292e13.html the data available in planning stage. Then, based on Latin hypercube sampling (LHS) technique, a capacity credit evaluation method of wind generation was put forward and its effectiveness and accuracy were proved by tests in IEEE-RTS 79 system. The influence of correlation between wind output and network load was analyzed. Evaluation results provide an important reference for wind power to participate in power balance. KEY WORDS: wind generation; wind speed variation characteristics; capacity credit; cumulant method; Latin hypercube sampling (LHS) 摘要：随着风力发电在电网中穿透水平的提高，风力发电的容量可信度评估问题逐渐成为电网规划中关注的新热点。为描述风电出力与电网负荷的相关性，以规划阶段风电场可获得的数据为基础，基于半不变量法建立了考虑风速变化特性的风电出力模型；提出了基于拉丁超立方采样(Latin hypercube sampling，LHS)的风力发电容量可信度评估方法，通过对IEEE-RTS79系统进行评估验证了该方法的正确性和有效性，并分析了风电出力与电网负荷的相关性对容量可信度的影响。评估结果可作为风力发电参与电力平衡的重要 依据。 关键词：风力发电；风速变化特性；容量可信度；半不变量法；拉丁超立方采样 6 000万kW，预计到“十二五”末将超过1亿kW[1]。可见，风力发电正从补充能源向替代能源过渡。因此，在电力电量/doc/9ced2ab9