中国城市主城区与郊区房价波动差异研究--以广州为例.docVIP

 中国城市主城区与郊区房价波动差异研究 ——以广州为例 王江，陈章喜** 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 （暨南大学经济学院，广州 510632） 摘要：以城市内部房价波动差异为特征的中国城市房价过度波动，是中国政府和理论界关注 的焦点。基于此，本文以广州市为例，在对主城区与郊区房价波动差异描述的基础上，利用 2005 年第 4 季度至 2010 年第 1 季度的广州市 10 个区的面板数据进行了实证检验。实证结 果表明，预期和受周边房价的影响程度是主城区与郊区房价波动差异的主要原因；对全市、 主城区、郊区房价波动差异而言，实际抵押贷款利率作用不明显，而房地产税则有不同程度 的影响。国家及城市地方政府应制定合理的相关政策，引导城市房地产市场的平稳发展。 关键词：房价；主城区；郊区；波动差异 中图分类号：F061.5 The differences of the housing price fluctuations between main urban and suburban areas in chinese cities——a case of Guangzhou city Wang Jiang, CHEN Zhangxi (Economic School, JiNan University, Guangzhou 510632) Abstract: The excessive fluctuation of the housing price in chinese cities which is characterized by the differences of the fluctuation of the housing price in the inside of the cities is a problem focused on intensely by Chinese theory and political horizons. Based on this, this article takes GuangZhou city for example. First of all, it descripts the fluctuation differences of housing price between main urban and suburban areas. Then it makes an empirical test based on the panel data of 10 districts in GuangZhou city from Q4 2005 to Q1 2010. The empirical results show that the anticipation and the differences in the degree of influence by the housing price in peripheral areas are the main reasons of the differences in the housing price fluctuations between main urban and suburban areas.To the differences of the housing price fluctuation in the whole city, the main urban areas or the surburban areas, the effect of actual mortgage rates is not obvious, but the real estate tax takes effect on different degrees. The state and the local government of the city should set down reasonable policies to guide the stable development of the real estate market in cities. Key words: the housing price; the main urban areas; the surburban areas; the fluctuation differences 0 引言 中国城市的郊区化与郊区的城市化已成为当代中国城市发展的主旋律。与此相应，以中 国城市主城区与郊区房价波动差异为特征的中国房地产价格大幅波动成为中国经济持续稳 定增长的重要隐患。因此，保持城市房价的平稳增长是中国理论界和政府部门关注的焦点， 也是中国宏观调控的主