预算编制中预测方法与应用.pdfVIP

Chapter12Forecasting

1.Thenningandcontrolcycle

2.Forecastsinbudgeting

Budgetsarebasedonforecasts.Forecastsmightbepreparedfor:

Thevolumeofoutputandsa

Sarevenue(savolumeandsaprices)

Costs

Thepurposeofforecastinginthebudgetingprocessistoestablishrealisticassumptionsfor

nning.Forecastsmightalsobepreparedonaregularbasisforthepurposeoffeed-forward

controlreporting.

Aforecastmightbebasedonsimpleassumptions,suchasapredictionofa5%growthinsa

volumeorsarevenue.Similarly,budgetedexpendituremightbeforecastusingasimple

incrementalbudgetingapproach,andaddingapercentageamountforinflationontopofthe

previousyearsbudget.

Ontheotherhand,forecastsmightbepreparedusinganumberofforecastingmodels,

第十二章预测

1.计划和控制周期

2.预算预测

预算基于预测。预测可能是为了：

产量和销量

销售收入（销量和）

成本

预算过程中预测的目的是为规划建立现实的假设。出于前馈控制报告的目的，还可以

定期准备预测。

预测可能基于简单的假设，例如预测销量或销售收入增长5%。同样，可以使用简单的

增量预算方法来预测预算支出，并在上一年的预算基础上添加通货膨胀的百分比金额。

On另一方面，可以使用多种预测模型来准备预测，

methodsortechniquesthatlooktocalculatetrendsandvariationsoverpreviousyears.The

reasonforusingthesemodelsandtechniquesisthattheymightprovidemorereliableforecasts.

Possibleforecastingtechniques:

Thehigh-Iowmethod

Linearregressionanalysis

Timeseriesanalysis

Indexnumbers

3.Linearregressionanalysis

3.1.Lineofbestfit

Toestimatetherelationshipweentwovariabintheformofanequation,wecantrytofit

astraightlinethrough