中型和重型公路车辆零排放成本分析（英）-NREL.docx

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中型和重型公路车辆零排放成本分析（英）-NREL.docx

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ENERGYDecarbonizingMedium

ENERGY

Heavy-DutyOn-RoadVehicles:Zero-EmissionVehiclesCost

Analysis

CatherineLedna,MatteoMuratori,ArthurYip,PaigeJadun,andChrisHoehne

March2022

NREL|2

ExecutiveSummary

?Withcontinuedimprovementsinvehicleandfueltechnologies(inlinewithU.S.DepartmentofEnergytargetsandvettedwithindustry),zero-emissionvehicles(ZEVs)canreachtotal-cost-of-driving

paritywithconventionaldieselvehiclesby2035forallmedium-andheavy-duty(MD/HD)vehicleclasses(withoutincentives).

?Assumingeconomicsdriveadoption,ZEVsalescouldreach42%ofallMD/HDtrucksby2030,reflectinglowercombinedvehiclepurchaseandoperatingcosts(usingreal-worldpaybackperiods).

?Inthisscenario,ZEVsalesreach99%by2045,and80%oftheMD/HDstocktransitionstoZEVsby2050,reducingCO2emissionsby69%from2019.

?Twotechnologicalsolutions—batteryelectricvehicles(BEVs)andfuelcellelectricvehicles

(FCEVs)—areviableinmultiplemarketsegments,offeringalternativepathwaysfordecarbonization.

–BEVstendtobecomecost-competitiveforsmallertrucksbefore2030andforshort-haul(500-mile)heavytrucksbefore2035.

–HydrogenFCEVstendtobecomecost-competitiveforlong-haul(500-mile)heavytrucksby2035.

NREL|3

Executive

ExecutiveSummary(cont.)

?Thisstudylooksatthreedifferentvehicleclassesandeightdifferentusecases/drivingdistances.ZEVadoptionismorerapidinlighterandshorter-distancevehicles,whichalsotendtobecentrally

fueled,reducinginfrastructurerisk.

–Basedonexternalstudies,busesareassumedtofullytransitiontoZEVby2030(100%sales).

?Sinceeconomicsaremorelikelytodriveadoptioninbusinessapplications,especiallyinlarger

companies,itispossiblethatdemandforZEVscouldriserapidlyinMD/HDtrucksoncecostparityisreached.Manufacturingcapacityandcharging/refuelinginfrastructurewil