基于多元线性回归对山东省旅游业收入影响因素分析及其预测.docVIP

23 - 23 - PAGE 1 - 目 录 摘要Ⅰ AbstractⅡ 绪论 1.1 研究的背景及意义1 1.2 本文采用的研究方法2 1.3 研究模型2 1.4 论文内容安排3 2.关于多元线性回归模型的探究 2.1 多元线性回归模型基本原理和主要内容4 2.2 简单线性回归模型建模过程4 2.3 模型检验6 2.4 模型优化8 3.模型预测 3.1 点预测14 3.2 平均值的区间预测15 3.3 个别值的区间预测15 3.4 灰色预测模型16 3.5 关于灰色预测模型与一般线性预测模型的比较分析20 4.全文工作总结与展望 4.1 全文工作总结21 4.2 研究展望21 参考文献23 摘 要 旅游业是中国经济的重要组成部分，改革开放40年来，我国经济快速发展，旅游业形势也发生较大变化。山东省旅游业受哪些因素影响，何种程度的影响，未来走势如何，都是本文研究的重点问题。 本文利用多元线性回归分析这种建模工具，研究了山东省旅游收入影响因素的热点问题。针对以上问题，本文利用Eviews软件对山东省旅游经济影响因素进行计量经济学分析。通过建立多元线性回归分析，然后用逐步回归方法修正多重共线性确定其线性回归方程，研究了关于影响山东省国内旅游收入因素的问题。关于预测，我国旅游业国内旅游收入既有逐年增长的确定性，又有随机变化的不确定性，山东省也一样；故可以将其视为典型的灰色系统，于是本文介绍了灰色预测模型的作用机理和用GM(1，1)模型来预测山东省国内旅游收入以及其适用的范围。 关键词：多元线性回归；逐步回归；多重共线性；灰色预测模型 Abstract Tourism is an important part of Chinas economy. Since the reform and opening up 40 years ago, Chinas economy has been developing rapidly, and the situation of tourism has changed greatly. What factors influence the tourism industry in shandong province, to what extent, and how the future trend will be, are the key issues in this paper. This paper studies the hot issues of influencing factors of tourism revenue in shandong province by using the modeling tool of multiple linear regression analysis. In view of the above problems, this paper uses Eviews software to conduct econometric analysis on the influencing factors of tourism economy in shandong province. By establishing the multivariate linear regression analysis, and then correcting the multicollinearity to determine the linear regression equation with the stepwise regression method, this paper studies the factors affecting the domestic tourism income of shandong province. As for the prediction, the domestic tourism income of Chinas tourism industry has both the certainty of increasing year by year and the uncertainty of random change. Therefore, it can be regarded as a typical gray system. Therefore, this paper introduces the function mechanism of the gray prediction model and uses GM(1,1) model to predict the domestic to