供应链需求预测和库存控制研究——基于时尚鞋服零售企业的实证分析-工商管理专业论文.docxVIP

万方数据 万方数据 最后，通过对四类商品的销量走势和库存走势的对比分析，本研究 发现：对于滞销类（瘦狗类和问题类）商品，库存问题主要是由于过高 的初始订量与过低的销量之间的差异造成；而相比之下，畅销类（明星 类和现金牛类）商品尽管也有较高的初始订量，但由于其销量的增长迅 速，商品营运人员因担心商品脱销，而进行了连续大量的补货，最终导 致了过量的库存。基于这一分析结果，若能在商品上市后的数周内，利 用需求预测模型分析判断商品的类型，继而采用促销和补货有机结合的 运营策略规避过量库存的风险，将对解决时尚鞋服零售企业的库存问题 产生积极的意义。 以问题类商品为例，通过提早制定针对会员的促销策略，将在一定 程度上提高商品的销量，降低过量库存。而一旦会员对部分商品的使用 带来持续的正面口碑，这些商品就可能由于销量增加，由问题类商品转 化为明星类商品。此时，商品营运人员应更加重视补货策略的实施，通 过少量且快速的补货，尽可能减少因错失销售机会而带来的利润损失。 纵观本研究的结论，“事中控制”的库存策略可以有效地降低过量 库存并相应地减少资源的浪费，对提升企业的经营业绩带来积极的影响， 相较于当前大多数企业所采用的“事后控制”库存策略，更具有显著的 优势。 关键词：供应链，销售预测，库存控制，口碑 S U P P L Y C H A IN D E M A N D F O R E C A S T A N D I N V E N T O R Y C O N TR O L : A N E M P I R IC A L S T U D Y OF A F A S H I O N C O M P A N Y A B S TR A C T During the recent twenty years, domestic apparel and footwear industry have undergone fast development. The enterprises’ operation model went through four stages development from products operation, brand operation, capital operation to resources operation. The scales of the enterprises expanded rapidly. As China joined the WTO in late 2001, a large number of foreign apparel and footwear companies entered China market through various investment forms. This has seen a surge in products supply. On the side of customers, the differences of consumption concept and habits made the individual needs become more and more popular. Under this background, domestic apparel and footwear companies has to face more difficult and severe problem about excessive inventory. How to reduce the excessive inventory has already become the most urgent problem for many apparel and footwear companies. This thesis follows this direction, and proposes relevant solutions from the demand forecast perspective. This thesis adopts literature research and interview method to summarize the factors which have impact on sales quantity of fashion apparel and footwear. Through the cluster analysis, it makes an exploratory analysis of sample data which comes from a domestic large footwear company. Th