工程项目风险管理分析-管理科学与工程专业论文.docxVIP

华 华 中 科 技 大 学 硕 士 学 位 论 文 II II Abstract Risks of engineering project prefers to the various possible risks in the entire project life cycle. Risks exist in any projects. Because of the large investment, long construction period, and numerous uncertain factors, various risks exist during the planning, designing, building and using after completion of the engineering project Engineering project risk management is a kind of soft science. It is a kind of comprehensive economic management activity which includes many disciplines. And it is a systemic management subject which across the natural and social sciences. Engineering project risk management should make systemic and dynamic management to the risks appeared during the implementation process of the engineering project with some technical means. Normally the project risk management in its life cycle should identify, estimate, evaluate, respond and control the risks. This paper will give a simple presentation and analysis to the step and the purpose of this five step process. Risk estimation and evaluation method is one of the major researches of the project risk management, and it is also the core of this paper. Nowadays more commonly used risk estimation and evaluation methods are risk mapping, PERT, AHP, comprehensive evaluation, fault tree analysis, and Monte Carlo simulation. This paper will focus on the analysis of the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, FAHP, fuzzy fault tree. Finally, this paper will propose a cost risk estimation and evaluation program to the Xiaowan Hydropower Project of Lancang River Hydropower Development Company. Firstly, the entire cost risk is divided into 3 levels by FAHP, and the weights of each level are decided. Then, the cost risk of the entire project is estimated and evaluated by fuzzy comprehensive evaluation. Keywords: engineering project; risk; risk management; fuzzy synthesize evaluation; Monte-Carlo simulation III III 目 录 摘 要 I ABSTRACT II 1 绪论 1.1 项目风险管理研究国内外现状 (