黄河头道拐河凌情预报物元分析模型的设计与实现.docVIP

毕 业 设 计 题　　目 黄河头道拐河段凌情预报物元分析模型设计与实现 黄河头道拐河段凌情预报物元分析模型的设计与实现 Toudaoguai Yellow River Ling Forecast Matter Element Analysis Model Design and Implementation Author Lin Haihua Instructor Yuan Jing Abstract Ice flood is a rising phenomenon caused by resistance to the flow of the river ice in the Y ellow River. The Yellow River river across 23 different longitude, topography, runoff varies greatl y.The Yell ow River due to its special geographical position and topographical features, decided to run multiple. However, the Yellow River in Ningxia, Inner Mongolia River as the river narrow, curved, shallow, easy ice dam, causing the water level of the river rose, a serious ice run. In recent years, the Yellow River attaches great importance to the study of ice in our country,the state has invested heavily to carry out the formation mechanism of ice, ice breaking methods to predict the occurrence of ice and other research. This paper first analyzes several causes of ice run, on the geographical location of the Yellow River Ningxia, Inner Mongolia section, the ice flood disaster. Application of matter element analysis theory created by Professor Cai Wen, extracted from the influence of the three factors of the Yellow River Toudaoguai River flood, a factor of six. Construct the matter-element model, correlation function, simulation and prediction on the freeze-up date. Keywords: Ice;Ice jam flood;freeze-up;Matter;Element Analysis Extension 目 录 1绪论 1 1.1黄河流域凌汛 1 1.2凌汛成因 1 1.3黄河凌汛特征 2 2黄河宁蒙段凌汛 4 2.1宁夏河段 5 2.2内蒙古河段 5 2.3宁蒙段凌情总结 6 3 物元分析 7 3.1物元分析介绍 7 3.2 物元理论 8 3.3可拓集与关联函数 11 4 MATLAB 23 4.1 MATLAB简介 23 4.2 MATLAB 24 4.3数据和函数的可视化 26 4.4 Excel、文件在MATLAB中的读写 31 5 冰情数据挖掘 32 5.1冰情数据说明 32 5.2数据处理 32 5.3利用数据挖掘对封河日期进行预测 41 5.4小结 48 结论 49 致谢 50 参考文献 52 1绪论 1.1黄河流域凌汛 ]。 1.2凌汛成因 影响黄河下游冰凌演变的因素很多，其主要影响因素有热力因素、动力因素、河道形态及人类活动等。这些因素的相互作用，形成了黄河下游冰凌的演变过程和特点。 1.2.1河道形态 从黄河干流河道形态看，黄河下游是由西南流向东北，气温是上段暖下段冷，河道宽度是上宽下窄，比降是上陡下缓，这些特点对流冰和封开河形势十分不利，也是产生黄河下游凌情和凌灾的重要原因之一。据统计，凌汛期有95%以上的险情或灾害发生在弯