The market for the flexible mchanisms Carbon till 2012 and beyond对于柔性机制碳到2012市场和超越.pptVIP

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The market for the flexible mchanisms Carbon till 2012 and beyond对于柔性机制碳到2012市场和超越.ppt

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The market for the flexible mchanisms Carbon till 2012 and beyond对于柔性机制碳到2012市场和超越

The market for the flexible mechanisms: Carbon till 2012 and beyond Olga Gassan-zade Point Carbon April 24, 2008 Point Carbon today Trading analytics, Research advisory, News and Conferences Covers carbon, power and gas markets 170 employees (25 Ph.Ds) Oslo, London, Tokyo, Washington, Kiev 15.000 subscribers in 150 domains Overview Carbon market now Carbon market in 2008-12 Post-2012 Carbon Market Now Emergence of an effective carbon price Maturing market Still going strong Overview of CDM and JI Activities (as of April 2008) CER and ERU price categories (April 2008) 2008-12:Balancing supply and demand Kyoto Gaps (2008-12) Supply: Majority already in pipeline Issuance What we say they will deliver ...Add the AAUs... Estimate Kyoto market balance... Will the market be oversupplied? …Not that simple Realistic supply of AAU A balancing act between the mechanisms A split between CER/ERU and AAU demand Environment and development value of CDM and JI projects Banking between the periods? ERUs and CERs can be banked only up to a limit of 2.5 % of the initial assigned amount Theoretically, AAUs can be banked without restrictions But will there be a value to AAUs post-2012? A market with a certain dynamic AAU supply is sensitive to demand Snowball effect: Success will create more supply No liquidity in the AAU market: No transparent price-setting mechanism Pressure on the seller governments to deliver on the AAU value Pressure on the buyers to deliver on the price or other concessions Not a commodity market A market with a limited number of sellers and a limited number of buyers A commodity with a limited circulation and dangerously close expiry date Price will not be set by an equilibrium of supply and demand Instead it will be set by The willingness of the buyer to pay The assessment of the seller of the value of the AAUs Pricing in of risks and valuation of premiums Competitive selling or a cartel? Timing is critical Eligibility esta