Sustainable Retirement Plans in th New Normal Economy在新的正常经济可持续的退休计划.pptVIP

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Sustainable Retirement Plans in th New Normal Economy在新的正常经济可持续的退休计划.ppt

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Sustainable Retirement Plans in th New Normal Economy在新的正常经济可持续的退休计划

Investment Advisors to the Public Sector ? 2011 PFM Asset Management LLC Issuance and Investments inthe Low-Rate “New Normal” Economy January 12, 2011Presented by:Girard Miller, Senior StrategistPFM Asset Management LLC Agenda for This Session Economic fundamentals of the New Normal economy California’s unique challenges Debt issuance history and observations Treasury management considerations and strategies * ? 2011 PFM Asset Management LLC Economics of the New Normal Economy Asset bubble in real estate has deflated Financial sector on shaky ground Requires steep yield curve to silently recapitalize banks Deflation risks outweigh inflation risks in short term Federal fiscal policy now stretched to the limit No support for more stimulus BABs expired – just one example of new mood on Hill Tax relief will be the last major fiscal measure Fed has only one bullet left: Quantitative Easing Rates already effectively at zero * ? 2011 PFM Asset Management LLC Economic Outlook: Slow Recovery to Gain Momentum Excesses of past decade must be washed out Significant excess capacity in U.S. economy No inflationary pressure on the supply side except currency Weakness in aggregate demand in U.S. State and local spending a drag on economy Businesses afraid to expand until they see demand revive Asian and Latin American economies booming Replacing the U.S. as engines of global growth Global trade will continue to expand in 2011 Ports in So CA will benefit High unemployment will persist but decline slowly Confidence will strengthen, one step at a time * ? 2011 PFM Asset Management LLC California-Specific Challenges * ? 2011 PFM Asset Management LLC Real estate drag on statewide economy Rampant overbuilding and mortgage distress in many regions 22% of U.S. homes underwater, some parts of CA are worse Even upscale markets have been clobbered Until foreclosures abate, prices will lag and construction is frozen Negative impact on local government revenue base State’s budg