postwar recovery 194549战后恢复19449.pptVIP

Economic Development of Japan Postwar Recovery 1945-49 The Japanese economy collapsed due toinput shortage. Inflation surged. Livingstandards plummeted. The US occupied Japan and forceddemocratization and demilitarization(but later partly reversed). Subsidies and US aid supported the war-torn economy. The priority production system, based on economic planning, contributed to output recovery (1947-48). Inflation was ended by Dodge Line stabilization (1949). Basic Problems of Japan’s Economic Reconstruction (1946) Saburo Okita, Yonosuke Goto, eds Long-term goals must be set for Japan’s recovery and global industrial positioning. Concrete real-sector strategies to attain these goals, sector by sector. JICA-JBIC：Report of the Stocktaking Work on the Economic Development in Africa and the Asian Growth Experience (May 2008), pp.14-15 Identify desired vision, economic structure, and positioning in global value chain. Through public-private dialogue, discover growth-leading industries for future. Identify their constraints (infra, HRD, etc). Devise measures to remove constraints and promote targeted industries. Alternative Ways to Stop Inflation Shock approach (austerity) Gradualism (use of subsidies US aid) Conditional shock approach (PPS Dodge Line)Prof. Arisawa and the Ministry of Commerce and Industry Priority Production System 傾斜生産方式 HOWEVER--Yoichi Okita Elvira Kurmanalieva “Was PPS a Success?” GRIPS Research Report, Nov. 2006 Virtuous circle between coal steel production did not happen (VAR analysis); imported heavy oil and materials were true causes of recovery. PPS was successful only as a diplomatic tool to persuade US to permit these imports. Dodge Line Stabilization (1949) Washington sends Joseph Dodge, a US banker with strong belief in free market and sound budget, to end inflation (after stopping inflation in Germany). Super-balanced (surplus) budget—cut spending, end subsidies, raise utility prices Fiscal balance (bil. yen): -92.3 (1946), -103.9