02决策支持系统、模型与支持.ppt

Chapter 2Decision-Making Systems, Models, and Support Learning Objectives Learn the basic concepts of decision making. Understand systems approach. Learn Simon’s four phases of decision making. Understand the concepts of rationality and bounded rationality. Differentiate betwixt making a choice and establishing a principle of choice. Learn which factors affect decision making. Learn how DSS supports decision making in practice. Standard Motor Products Shifts Gears Into Team-Based Decision-Making Vignette Team-based decision making Increased information sharing Daily feedback Self-empowerment Shifting responsibility towards teams Elimination of middle management Decision Making Process of choosing amongst alternative courses of action for the purpose of attaining a goal or goals. The four phases of the decision process are: Intelligence Design Choice implementation Systems Structure Inputs Processes Outputs Feedback from output to decision maker Separated from environment by boundary Surrounded by environment System Types Closed system Independent Takes no inputs Delivers no outputs to the environment Black Box Open system Accepts inputs Delivers outputs to environment Models Used for DSS Iconic Small physical replication of system Analog Behavioral representation of system May not look like system Quantitative (mathematical) Demonstrates relationships between systems Phases of Decision-Making Simon’s original three phases: Intelligence Design Choice He added fourth phase later: Implementation Book adds fifth stage: Monitoring Decision-Making Intelligence Phase Scan the environment Analyze organizational goals Collect data Identify problem Categorize problem Programmed and non-programmed Decomposed into smaller parts Assess ownership and responsibility for problem resolution Decision-Making Design Phase Develop alternative courses of action Analyze potential solutions Create model Test for feasibility Validate results Select a principle of choice Establ