高盛 全球经济研究报告 20109.pdfVIP

Global Economics Paper No: 204 Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research at https://360. EM Equity in Two Decades: A Changing Landscape Significant shifts in global equity markets: Over the next two decades, emerging equity market capitalization could increase substantially in absolute terms and overtake developed markets. The primary drivers are rapid economic growth and capital market deepening. China may exceed the US in market cap terms by 2030. The EM landscape in two decades: Emerging equity cap could rise from $14tr to $37tr in 2020 and $80tr by 2030, bringing the EM share of global equity cap from 31% to 44% and 55% by these respective dates. The EM weight in the MSCI AC World index may also increase from 13% to 19% and 31% by 2020 and 2030. The BRICs’ share of world equity cap may be 30% by 2020 and 41% by 2030 vs. 18% now. For the N-11, the share could rise to 6% in 2030, from 5% now. DM savings pools will need to own more EM: We estimate that developed market institutional asset managers currently hold 6% in EM equities within t