Basic Business Statistics(8th Edition)：商务统计学（第八版）[精品].ppt

? 2002 Prentice-Hall, Inc. Chap 17-* Utility Utility is the idea that each incremental $1 of profit does not have the same value to every individual A risk averse person, once reaching a goal, assigns less value to each incremental $1. A risk seeker assigns more value to each incremental $1. A risk neutral person assigns the same value to each incremental $1. ? 2002 Prentice-Hall, Inc. Chap 17-* Three Types of Utility Curves Utility $ $ $ Utility Utility Risk Averter: Utility rises slower than payoff Risk Seeker:Utility rises faster than payoff Risk-Neutral: Maximizes Expected payoff and ignores risk ? 2002 Prentice-Hall, Inc. Chap 17-* Chapter Summary Described the payoff table and decision trees Opportunity loss Provided criteria for decision making Expected monetary value Expected opportunity loss Return to risk ratio Introduced expected profit under certainty Discussed decision making with sample information Addressed the concept of utility ? 2002 Prentice-Hall, Inc. ? 2002 Prentice-Hall, Inc. ? 2002 Prentice-Hall, Inc. Chap 17-* Basic Business Statistics(8th Edition) Chapter 17 Decision Making ? 2002 Prentice-Hall, Inc. Chap 17-* Chapter Topics The payoff table and decision trees Opportunity loss Criteria for decision making Expected monetary value Expected opportunity loss Return to risk ratio Expected profit under certainty Decision making with sample information Utility ? 2002 Prentice-Hall, Inc. Chap 17-* Features of Decision Making List alternative courses of action List possible events or outcomes or states of nature Determine “payoffs” (Associate a payoff with each course of action and each event pair) Adopt decision criteria (Evaluate criteria for selecting the best course of action) ? 2002 Prentice-Hall, Inc. Chap 17-* List Possible Actions or Events Payoff Table Decision Tree Two Methods of Listing ? 2002 Prentice-Hall, Inc. Chap 17-* Payoff Table (Step 1) Consider a food vendor determining whether to sell s