2009年上财金融学院实物期权与企业投资决策考核内容.pdf

考核内容(2009) 期终考核内容：有关实物期权应用的案例分析(60%) 可以参考其它资料，自己设计一个运用实物期权分析法做投资决策的案例（注意：不能 全部照抄），12 月31 日上课时间将最后定稿打印以后交上来，作为期末考核的依据。同时， 将最后定稿的电子文档(PPT 或word 文档)发至 yinjie@ 注意：文件名采用“实物期权期终考核2009_姓名_学号”的格式，以免被误删。 平时考核内容：(30%) 从下面的10 个案例中找出自己分担的部分，做成PPT 。12 月17 日及24 日随机抽同学 汇报。因此，12 月17 日之前必须各自准备好自己的案例，并将内容做成PPT 或word 文档。 将电子文档发至 yinjie@ 注意：文件名采用“实物期权案例2009_姓名_学号”的格式，以免被误删。 chaper 10 Valuing a Start-up Portlandia Ale was two guys and a dream. The company was started by two brewers who wanted to develop their own prod- ucts. The company needed $4 million to begin product develop- ment and manufacturing and another $12million in two years for the market launch. The entrepreneurswere very optimistic about their business opportunity, despite considerable uncertainty about the value of the market opportunity they were chasing. In other words, Portlandia Ale was a typical start-up. How much was it worth? F p r e 10.1 shows Portlandials simple start-up plan. The com- pany needed $4 million to get started and an additional $12 million to launch the product. Prospective investors were worried about the mar- ketplace. Once distribution and sales began, Portlandia would earn the same margins as other microbrewers and would be expected to be able to sustain its future growth from profits. The microbrewery segment of the beer market was becoming increasingly crowded, however, and sales migrated across products. Portlandia knew that it would need to continue to develop new produds as an established microbrewery, but that the value of a first product introduction was uncertain. The brewers had tried to value the company using a discounted cash flow analysis, but the result had been a negative value. As they searched for financing, the brewers had shown prospective investors a business plan with a singlevery optimistic forecast for future sale