电力行业控煤政策电力行业控煤政策研究.PDFVIP

Company LOGO “十三五”电力行业控煤政策电力行业控煤政策研究 China’s coal power during the 13China’s coal power during the 13th FYP: planning and policyand policy 袁家海袁家海 华北电力大学华北电力大学 “十三五””煤电发展 China’s coal power during 13China’s coal power during 13th FYP 规划目标(Planning target: What should be?)Planning target: What should be?) 现状评价(Progress assessment: what’s Progress assessment: what’s happening?) 政策展望(Policy outlook: What’s next?)(Policy outlook: What’s next?) 22 电力需求展望电力需求展望 Power Demand ProspectivePower Demand Prospective 2015: 全社会用电量增速0.5%0.5%  二产用电量 同比下降1.4% ，40年来首次负增长年来首次负增长 （The secondary industry decreased by 1.4%, the first negative growth in 40 yearsdecreased by 1.4%, the first negative growth in 40 years）;  第三产业和城乡居民生活用电同比分别增长第三产业和城乡居民生活用电同比分别增长7.5%和5.0% （Tertiary industry increased by 7.5% ，while Household increased by while Household increased by 5.0%）;  电力增速放缓、产业结构调整 ！(SlowSlow-down and structural adjustment is there!)  “十三五”：新常态下电力需求展望是电力规划的首要新常态下电力需求展望是电力规划的首要 th 问题(13 FYP: Demand growth dynamics under the new normal is FYP: Demand growth dynamics under the new normal is of primary importance for power planningof primary importance for power planning)! 基于部门分解的情景分析法探讨电力需求的动态的情景分析法探讨电力需求的动态变化 (Explore the dynamics of power demand by conducting scenario (Explore the dynamics of power demand by conducting scenario analysis based on sectoral decomposition)sectoral decomposition). 33 电力需求展望电力需求展望