章典教授讲座.pptVIP

Granger Causality Analysis of the relationship between grain price and various social and human ecological crises 穀物價格與各種社會及人類生態災難的 Granger 因果分析 Centennial variability of temperature and the alternation of golden and dark ages in Europe. Europe was in dark ages when temperature dropped below the threshold (i.e., σ -0.1)在百年尺度上歐洲“繁榮—災難”時段劃分與氣溫比較。當溫度低於臨界值（即σ -0.1），歐洲便進入災難時段 Temperature change and the alternation of harmony crisis periods in the Northern Hemisphere during the past millennium. Gray stripes represent the crisis periods in Europe 過去 1000 年北半球溫度變化與“繁榮－災難”時段的變遷。陰影代表歐洲的災難時段 Chinese examples 中國的例子 Peasant rebellions at the end of Ming, AD1634–1644 明末農民起義 Manchu invasion, AD1644 滿清入侵 To conclude, climate change was the ultimate cause, and the climate-driven economic crisis was the direct cause of significant human crises in pre-industrial Europe and the Northern Hemisphere! 總括來說，在前工業化時期，氣候變化是造成歐洲乃至整個北半球大規模人類災難的最終原因，而經濟危機是直接原因！ Implications In the present days, for industrial post-industrial societies, any natural / social factor that causes widespread depletion of livelihood resources (e.g., global climate environmental change, over-population, over-consumption, or non-equitable distribution of resources) may lead to large-scale human crisis due to a similar domino effect, following our established linkages 時至今天，不論是工業化或後工業化社會，任何造成生活資源大規模銳減的自然或社會因素（如全球氣候和環境變化、人口過多、過度消費、或資源分配不均等），都有可能產生類似的骨牌效應（因果關係），最終釀成人類大災難 The extent of the associated crisis will be largely contingent upon the degree of resource depletion and the effectiveness of advancing social buffering mechanisms, including social institutions at both international and national levels and social and technological developments 至於災難的影響，則取決於生活資源銳減的程度與及社會緩衝機制的有效性，當中牽涉到國家及國際層面的社會機制、社會及科技發展進程 Climate change was the ultimate cause of large-scale human crises in pre-industrial Europe and the Northern Hemisphere! 在前工業化時期，氣候變化是造成歐洲乃至整個北半球大規模人類災難的最終原因！ The research finding published online in the ‘Pr